Zhengzhou ChangHeYue New Material CO.,LTd
Weekly Oil Coke Market Report (Feb 11–19, 2025)
Price Trends
The oil coke market experienced significant fluctuations in prices and adjusted supply-demand dynamics over the past week. Prices initially surged on Feb 11 but subsequently declined before a minor rebound.
- Feb 11: National average price rose sharply by 8.00% (¥275/ton) to ¥3,712.50/ton, driven by accumulated supply-demand shifts and increased downstream activity.
- Feb 12–14: Prices fell sequentially—¥3,700.00 (-0.34%), ¥3,675.00 (-0.68%), and ¥3,637.50 (-1.02%)—due to tightening supply and weakening demand.
- Feb 17: Prices dipped further to ¥3,607.50/ton (-0.82%).
- Feb 18: A modest rebound (+¥10/ton, +0.28%) to ¥3,617.50/ton marked renewed restocking.
- Feb 19: Prices edged down slightly to ¥3,607.50/ton (-0.28%) as market sentiment remained cautious.
Supply Analysis
- Domestic Production:
- Shandong refineries hit historical low operating rates, while major refineries prepared for maintenance, tightening domestic supply.
- As of Feb 9, 14 refineries (6 idle, 8 under maintenance) had delayed coking units offline, impacting 12.2 million tons/year of capacity.
- April–July 2025: Four additional refineries plan检修, adding 3.3 million tons/year of capacity cuts.
- Imports:
- In 2024, China imported 8.67 million tons of oil coke (-19.43% YoY). July imports totaled 1.26 million tons (+16.82% YoY), valued at $156.97/ton (-5.17% MoM, -7.85% YoY).
- Low-sulfur (<3%) and other uncalcined coke accounted for ~3:7 of imports. Low-sulfur imports slid 8.69% to 2.27 million tons, while other types dropped 22.66% to 6.41 million tons.
- Top suppliers in July: US (34%), Russia (20%), Colombia (11%).
Demand Insights
- Prebaked Anodes: Stable demand from high aluminum production (~43.51 million tons) supported low-sulfur coke, though buyers balked at elevated prices.
- Anode for Lithium Batteries: Growth in EVs boosted demand for high-quality low-sulfur coke, exacerbating supply constraints.
- Fuel Market: Low-sulfur coke usage in furnaces/coal-fired power plants faced environmental regulations, limiting growth. Industrial silicon output rose but remained constrained by pollution controls.
- Global Trade: Anticipation of US import tariffs drove early restocking, easing upward pressure later in the week.
Inventory & Market Sentiment
- Current Inventories: Social stocks remained low, with minimal pressure on manufacturers. Trade players prioritized caution, avoiding bulk stocking amid volatility.
Future Outlook
- Q2 2025: Expected demand growth from polysilicon expansion may spur restocking.
- Risks: Rapid refinery restarts could ease supply tightness; crude oil price fluctuations and import dynamics (policy, volume, pricing) will influence domestic markets.
- Key Drivers: Evolution in downstream sectors (aluminum, lithium batteries, fuel) and regulatory policies.
